• The federal government does not have a surplus. 
• Fiscal year 1999 will end this October with the federal government having run a deficit of $5 billion for the year. 
• The nation has an overall debt, racked up over the last 20 years or so, of $5.6 trillion. 

The problem started when President Clinton decided to slap on a pair of rose-colored glasses and base his budget on a 15-year projection.  Predictions about future government revenues and expenditures that look a mere six months ahead usually turn out to be way off.  At 15 years, we could probably do as well using the psychic hot line. 

Clinton picked 15 years because that time period offered the rosiest of all rosy scenarios by fully taking into account our current economic boom and avoiding looking at the explosion in Medicare and Social Security costs that will occur about 15 years from now.  Such gamesmanship makes for good short-term politics, not good policy. 

Republican leadership, not wanting to be outdone in passing out good news, jumped on the bandwagon and started spouting the same numbers.  Even over 10 years we will have a $3 trillion surplus, more than enough for a $1 trillion tax cut, the Republicans cried. 

Both parties used these numbers to make similarly outlandish promises of tax cuts and increased spending.  Politicians can promise a lot when they have trillions of dollars to toss around like bread crumbs to pigeons– even if those dollars are no more than projections. 

But let’s say goodbye to “Fantasy Island” for the moment and return to the real world.  The surplus Republicans refer to is only a surplus of the Social Security trust fund, which isn’t in any way a surplus for the federal government.  All of that money must be paid back, plus interest, to meet the ever-growing obligations the trust fund has to the beneficiaries entitled to the money. 

Both parties claim to agree to this.  They scream as loudly as possible, “Don’t touch the Social Security trust fund!  It’s not the government’s money.” 

In the next breath, of course, they talk about a $3 trillion surplus.  It’s a neat trick.  In two quick statements politicians figure out a way to rhetorically spend the same $2 trillion twice.  Some proclaim their desire to also pay down part of our $5.6 trillion debt, suing that same money during the same time period.  Now our heroes have spent the same money three times. 

The situation gets worse when we take a closer look at those projections.  We really have a smoke screen on top of a smoke screen.  Not only do politicians try to spend the same trillion dollars three times, that trillion dollars stands a good chance of never even existing anywhere but on some accountant’s spreadsheet of future projections. 

The projections assume constant economic growth for our country, continued low inflation and a 20 percent real cut in government spending.  We have had a seven-year expansion, already a post-World War II record.  Do we really believe it will last for another 10 years?  Would it not be wiser to wait for the revenues to actually show up before we spend them once, much less three times? 

The 20 percent spending cut is based on the requirements of the 1997 Balanced Budget Act.  Unfortunately, the same majority party now proposing a trillion-dollar tax cut has already voted several times to violate that agreement.  The $230 billion transportation bill, last year’s budget agreement and this year’s supplemental spending bill all exceeded the spending caps.  I voted against all three bills, but they sailed through with sizable majorities. 

This year, to further get around the budget caps, Republicans have declared a number of expenditures “emergencies.”  Emergencies are exempt from the budget caps, but they still spend real money that must be counted against that trillion dollars in “projected” surpluses. 

Just a few weeks ago nearly $5 billion went out the window as Republicans declared the census an emergency.  We didn’t see that one coming?  We’ve done it every 10 years since this country came into existence. 

I will be the first to admit that these are all hard choices.  Americans pay too much in taxes.  Our debt is too high, and a number of programs– Medicare and Social Security topping the list– face increasing costs and more and more people become eligible for these vital programs.  A big reason why we face these difficult choices is the fiscal irresponsibility on the part of both Democrats and Republicans during the 1980s and early 1990s. 

We cannot wish these problems away.  Pretending that we have a trillion dollars that we don’t have and might never have, and then promising to spend it three times, only creates the illusion that these hard choices don’t exist. 

The best thing we can do right now is be cautious.  We have the strongest economy we’ve seen in a generation, with 4 percent unemployment, strong economic growth for all income levels and inflation of only 2 percent.  Now is the time to save for a rainy day.  We should pass a budget that puts paying down the debt first. 

The stream of irresponsible statements about huge surpluses that may or may not materialize doesn’t help make this happen.  Let’s be honest with the American people and choose the fiscally responsible path.