We have a very promising situation right now where we are finally headed towards balancing the budget. It was not too long ago when that seemed like an impossible dream. I remember in 1990 when we looked at budget deficits growing on a yearly basis, stacked on top of an already multi-trillion dollar debt, it seemed impossible to think that we would ever dig our way out of that hole, but thanks to a strong economy, the private sector kicking in and some good decisions made by both sides of the aisle and by President Clinton's administration, we are to the point where we almost have a yearly balanced budget. Now, we still have a $5.6 trillion debt to deal with, but we are headed in the right direction, for the moment. 

That is why I rise to speak this evening, because the ``for the moment'' part could change. As we head into the budget negotiations that are starting in earnest in both chambers and at the White House, we need to be very careful not to lose the progress that we have gained and not to, in essence, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory which we still have plenty of time to do. 

I think there are a couple of ways this might happen. The first way is when we start throwing numbers around of the surplus. We have heard the numbers in the trillions of dollars about how much money we have got lying around. I want to try this evening to clarify exactly what we are talking about, because there are a number of variables in these numbers that often do not come with the rosy scenarios that various politicians are laying out for people to hear. 

We have heard, for instance, that we have and will run up, as currently projected, $6 trillion in surpluses over the course of the next 15 years. There are a number of problems with this scenario. First of all, of that $6 trillion, better than half, almost, I think it is like $3.1 trillion, will be ran up in the Social Security trust fund. Any surplus that we have in the Social Security trust fund is not money that we can spend because it is money that we borrow from that trust fund with a promise to pay it back plus interest so that we can meet the obligations of the Social Security trust fund. If we were to take that money and treat it as a surplus and spend it, we would in essence--not in essence, we would--be spending money twice. That is exactly the sort of thing that got us in trouble in the 1980s. If you spend money twice, you wind up in debt because you do not have it when you need it. 

So right away we lose half of that 15-year figure, better than half of that 15-year figure. You could still look at that and say, ``Gosh, $2.9 trillion over 15 years, that is still a lot of money.'' It is, but it presumes that our existing budget of all spending will be reduced by 20 percent. Not only will it not increase but we will make cuts of 20 percent. This was part of the 1997 balanced budget agreement that occurred before our economic situation got rosier and more money poured into the coffers. I do not want to be one to predict the future, but having been around this place for the last year or so and listening to people talk about all the various programs, from defense to education to you name it that people feel are underfunded, much less in need of a 20 percent cut, I find it very hard to believe that over the course of that 15 years we are actually going to have that 20 percent reduction. So if we assume that again, we are going to get in trouble. That puts us in a position where you realize there is not that much money there. 

Lastly, and most importantly, these are projections, estimates. Now, we have to do projections and estimates. You have to sort of guess, if you will, at what your budgets are going to look like so you can plan for the future. That is acceptable, but I would not count our chickens before they hatch. Because that 15-year projection is based on 15 years of continued growth and low inflation. Now, granted the growth that is projected is lower than we have had in the last year or two, as we have had the long peacetime expansion, the longest that we have had in a while, but still there are times when revenues go down instead of up, when estimates get worse instead of better. I know this as every Member of this Chamber ought to know. Those times happened throughout the 1980s and into the early 1990s. We had projected balanced budgets at, gosh, I do not know how many times throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but the numbers always came in worse than expected, many times far worse than expected, dramatically growing the deficit instead of reducing it. 

So if we assume that this 15-year period is going to produce continued growth, continued low inflation, we are asking for trouble. I would suggest that a more modest approach is at most let us assume that maybe half of that is going to happen and if the other half happens, fine, when it happens, then we can use it for tax cuts or needed spending, but let us not spend it before we get it. 

And, fourth, the final point, we should not forget the $5.6 trillion debt that we have hanging over us. It would be nice to use a lot of this money to pay down that debt, to get us back to the point where we can have the fiscal responsibility that we need in this country. We spend over $200 billion, somewhere around $220 billion a year, in interest on the debt. That is money that cannot go for any program, cannot go for any tax cut, it is merely servicing our debt. If we were to pay down that debt, we could reduce that amount and have even more money and a more fiscally responsible budget. 

Let me suggest that now is the time to do this, at a time when we have between 4 and 6 percent growth depending on the quarter, at the time when we have virtually nonexistent inflation. These are unprecedented times, at least unprecedented in the last 40 or 50 years in this country, and if we do not seize this opportunity at a time when unemployment is 4.2 percent, to be fiscally responsible, we will never do it when times turn bad. Because when times turn bad is precisely when you need to spend more money on things like education and infrastructure, when you need to give tax cuts to help people who are struggling due to the tough economic times. Now is the time to be fiscally responsible. 

I want to touch on one more point on that. We have recently heard a lot of talk about tax cuts. Truthfully there are not many politicians who do not like tax cuts. We would love to be able to give as many of them as possible and in as many places as possible, but only in my opinion if they do not jeopardize fiscal responsibility. 

The plan that has been rolled out by the majority Republican Party in recent days calls for $850 billion, or $875 billion, depending on whose figures you believe, over the next 10 years. Right away, please note that they estimate over the next 10 years, whereas the surplus figures that have been thrown around in the newspapers estimate over 15 years. So over 15 years, that $850 billion is even more. In fact, if you take that $850 billion, put it over the 10 years like it is, then take our projected surpluses back over 10 years, and that is the chart that I have with me today, you will see that we have a figure here that shows that the combined surpluses over those two periods are somewhere around $1 trillion. 

If you then also add into it the fact that if you spend the $850 billion or if you give it to tax cuts basically, you will not be able to pay down the debt at all, you jack up your interest payments by almost $200 billion and you completely exhaust this projected surplus in 10 years. So we better do absolutely as well every single year and we better be prepared to cut the budget 20 percent or we can forget about fiscal responsibility. The number is simply too high. Yes, we ought to do tax cuts. I completely support that. I completely agree with that. We ought to target it to the middle class, target it to the people who maybe have not necessarily benefited as much from the recent economic boon as others. But we should not exhaust the entire projected surplus on these tax cuts, putting ourselves in a position where we cannot even begin to pay down the debt and probably will not be able to have a balanced budget if the numbers come in worse than they are currently projected. That is not fiscally responsible. 

Let me throw one other frightening statistic at you as we are looking at these happy numbers of the projected surpluses. We project out 15 years, which is an interesting time frame to pick particularly when you factor in positive economic projections, because it is right about at that time period, the year 2014, when the costs of Medicare and Social Security are really going to accelerate. If you project it out a few more years, you would see how much that starts to hurt us as the baby boom generation starts to retire in earnest. We are going to be in big trouble. 

All of these factors and statistics need to be considered. The fact that half the money is in the Social Security trust fund, the fact that right at the end of our projections we get hit with a huge bill for Medicare and Social Security. These are things that mitigate how much money we have. My grave concern, and I have seen it already, and had people come up to me, program after program, tax cut after tax cut is thrown at us and everyone says, ``Well, gosh, you ought to be able to do it. You've got this multi-trillion dollar surplus that everybody keeps talking about.'' I hope in my remarks I have explained a little bit tonight that we do not have that multi-trillion dollar surplus in the bank by any stretch of the imagination. 

I really think that the single best thing this Chamber can do for the people of our country right now in these strong economic times is balance the budget and pay down the debt. Then if we hit tough economic times, we will have a little leeway to borrow some money, help prime the pump, help get the economy back going again, but not if we cannot do it now. If we cannot do it now in these prosperous times, we will never do it. And God help us if it gets to the point where actually the projections go down, if we experience a year of negative growth, which by the way does happen, if inflation ticks back up closer to double digits than just one or two, then we will really be in a fix. Now is the time to prepare for the future. 

I would like to close by just making one other point. This is tough. I recognize that. I am not going to stand here and say that fiscal responsibility is easy. Because we have a lot of needs in this country. I could tick off a dozen off the top of my head, defense spending, education spending, veterans, health care for seniors and children, environmental protection programs, and that is just a few. We also could have a tremendous need for a lot of tax cuts that would be tremendously helpful to the middle class and others. I know that. Every day in my office a number of people come in the door and request one of those programs. But the obligation and the responsibility of this Congress is to recognize that we are not the last people in this country who are going to need those things and if we spend all the money now, if we basically have no discipline and simply want to pass out the goodies to make as many people happy as is humanly possible, then 10, 20, 30 years from now our children, our grandchildren, those of us who are still around, are not going to have anything for these same programs. In the year 2020, 2050, they are going to need education and transportation and health care and defense spending every little bit as much as we need it now but they will not have it because we in our fiscally irresponsible way will have spent their money. 

I grew up in the 1970s and the 1980s when prior Congresses were in essence spending all of my money. I did not much like it and I darn sure do not want to do it to future generations because I do not have the discipline to do what is right and what is best for this country and what is responsible. 

Do not let rosy scenarios and pie in the sky numbers fool you about where the budget is going and what is going to happen. Demand fiscal responsibility from this Congress, demand that the budget gets balanced and we pay down the debt.