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The following is the first of two columns Congressman Cole wrote about his recent trip to the Middle East.
Unusual circumstances combined with the hard work of American soldiers and diplomats have come together to create a rare moment of opportunity in the world's most troubled region, the Middle East. As a result of the death of Yasser Arafat there will be an election in Palestine to choose new leadership for the Arabs of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip on January 9th. Shortly thereafter on January 31st the first free elections in fifty years will occur in Iraq. These elections give the people of Palestine and Iraq the chance to join the people of Afghanistan and choose new leaders who can move them forward in their efforts to create free, independent and strong countries.
In an effort to assess the outlook for these elections I recently joined a bipartisan congressional delegation that visited Israel, Palestine, Jordon and Iraq. This was my third trip to the region since I was elected to Congress. Our group of five congressmen had extensive discussions with key national leaders, with representatives of the United Nations and other international organizations, and with American military and state department personnel. Our aim was to get their assessment of the outlook for the elections and their potential impact on this troubled region. There was a surprising consensus of opinion among these different people with whom we visited. While no one discounted the challenges of holding elections in this troubled region, all felt it could be done successfully. Moreover, there was a sense that the elections could open the door to a more peaceful and democratic Middle East.
Clearly there are many obstacles to successful elections. Palestine is rife with conflict, has groups that are determined to seek destruction of its Jewish neighbor and is under the effective occupation of the Israeli military. Still, a recent poll showed that the majority of the population believes elections offer a chance to lower the level of violence and arrive at a settlement with Israel. In Iraq, of course, there is a violent insurgency being conducted by the remnants of the regime of Saddam, transnational terrorists and Islamic theocrats determined to either derail or subvert the elections in order to prevent the emergence of a democratic state. In many cases the insurgents are being aided by other countries that fear a democratic Iraq will intensify the call for reform and democracy within their own borders.
In Israel we met with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, new Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres, and American Ambassador Kurtzer. While in Palestine we had discussions with Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian Minister of Negotiations, and members of the Central Elections Commission of Palestine. While both Israeli and Palestinian officials stressed the problems of conducting a free and fair election, all believe it can and will occur. At that point negotiations between the two sides could take place. Sharon said Israel was prepared to make "painful compromises" to achieve peace, but not until the Palestinian authorities cooperated in ending terrorist attacks on Israel. Erekat acknowledged that the last time the two sides negotiated, "we didn't prepare our people for the compromises we would need to make". Erekat added that Israel and Palestine "will either be two winners or two losers together."
In Iraq the January election will produce a 275 member National Assembly that will choose a new government, finalize the constitution, and prepare for another round of elections at the end of 2005. After that the new Iraqi government and the United States will determine the pace and the timing of the withdrawal of American military forces from Iraq. These elections are the key to giving the new government the legitimacy and the credibility needed to defeat the insurgency and win international recognition and support.
In terms of the Iraqi elections themselves the picture is mixed. U.S. military officials and Iraqi government leaders both agree that in 14 of the country's 18 provinces elections will probably go off quite well. Everyone expects high voter turnout in the Kurdish regions in the north and the Shia regions of the south. The challenge will be in parts of Baghdad and the so-called "Sunni triangle" where the insurgents are strong and doing everything they can to thwart the elections. This includes assassinating election officials, intimidating candidates and voters, and systematically killing police officers and their families. One female member of the Independent Iraqi Election Commission with whom we visited was the target of an attempted assassination the day before our meeting. As she put it, "I am threatened, so I avoid any public statements or public appearances". Still she was determined to do her duty and see that the elections occurred on schedule. I could not help but wonder how many of us would be as brave and determined if terrorists tried to keep us from exercising our right to vote.
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