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For Immediate Release
August 24, 2007 |
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Shays Outlines Observations
on Iraq
Key Recommendations
Include Status of Forces Agreement, Plebiscite, and Increased
Dialogue with Iran
Washington, D.C.— In a letter to Secretary of Defense
Robert Gates, others in the Bush Administration, Congressional,
military and Iraqi leaders, Congressman Christopher Shays
(CT-4) outlined observations and recommendations on the current
political and military situation in Iraq following his most
recent trip there.
In the letter, Shays recommends:
- Establishing a timeline for a safe and responsible drawdown
of our forces based on gains made on the ground;
- Negotiating a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between
the U.S. and Iraq and an Iraqi plebiscite to approve the
agreement;
- Supporting Iraqis holding local elections in stabilized
areas;
- Increasing dialogue with Iran with clear consequences
for continued aggressive actions against Iraq;
- Placing more international pressure on Syria;
- Outlawing the PKK and shutting down their bases; and
- Negotiating a SOFA with the Kurdish Regional Government.
Shays, who has stated the solution to the conflict in Iraq
must be bipartisan to be successful, has been blocked from
bringing a number of his recommendations to the House Floor
for debate.
Last month, Shays tried to offer an amendment to H.R. 3159,
which the House passed on August 2, 2007. The amendment proposed
a responsible and realistic timeline to drawdown U.S. forces
beginning 120 days after the bill's enactment and concluding
by December 31, 2008. The Rules Committee did not make the
amendment in order.
Shays also has attempted to bring to the House Floor a vote
on implementing the Iraq Study Group recommendations, which
members have not yet been allowed to debate.
Shays made his 18th trip in August as part of congressional
delegation that included Reps. Brian Baird (D-WA) and Ralph
Hall (R-TX). The trips are part of his ongoing congressional
oversight of the political situation in Iraq and the progress
of the U.S. operations and policies there.
The text of Shays’ letter follows:
August 23, 2007
The Honorable Robert M. Gates
Secretary of Defense
1000 Defense Pentagon
Room 3E880
Washington, DC 20301-1000
Dear Mr. Secretary:
I recently traveled with Congressional Delegation Baird to
the Middle East where we met with key officials in several
countries, [1]
including Iraq.[2]
The primary purpose of the trip was to continue oversight
of political and security developments in Iraq and to make
specific recommendations concerning the future direction of
US policy for the region.
Iraq and its citizens could have a viable future. The US
troop surge has improved security which creates an opportunity
for the Iraqi Government to reach political accommodation.
However, it appears Iraqi leaders are at best too inexperienced
or at worst too incompetent to capitalize on this opportunity.
The United States is also to blame. Our mistakes have helped
create this impasse.
I believe we have a moral obligation to the Iraqi people
and must give Ambassador Crocker and General Petraeus time
to help Iraqis reconcile their differences. But, American
patience is wearing thin.
Iraq’s national reconciliation issues—the Iraqi
oil-revenue sharing law; constitutional reforms; reversal
of de-Baathification; and provincial elections—are legislative
actions requiring resolution by Iraqi politicians. Ultimately,
it is up to Iraqis to take charge of their country and resolve
their differences.
Since August 2006 I have recommended we develop and negotiate
with the Iraqi Government a timeline for the drawdown of Coalition
forces. The main argument against establishment of a timeline,
namely, that it will provide the enemy with dates certain
of troop withdrawals, is misleading. Our enemies already know
we will be drawing down our forces.
Negotiating a timeline will demonstrate we will not be in
Iraq forever and we will not leave Iraq precipitously. I believe
it will diffuse insurgent anger over the continued presence
of Coalition forces and provide Iraqi leaders a much needed
deadline to motivate them to complete actions necessary for
national reconciliation.
Drawing down our troops is inevitable. We have overextended
our military by deploying them more often, with longer tours
in country and shorter time periods between deployments. We
must face this reality and restructure our military for the
long struggle against Islamic extremism.
The following observations and recommendations are provided
for your consideration:
Observation: The surge of US forces into
Iraq is showing credible and positive results enabling us
to take the offensive. Al-Qaeda is being isolated and pushed
out of the cities into the countryside. Their leaders are
being eliminated.
The number of overall attacks in Iraq, including improvised
explosive devices, has decreased. Civilian murders in July,
both Iraq-wide and in Baghdad, are at their lowest levels
since early 2006.
Sunni tribal leaders who previously received little attention
from the United States are now partnering with US forces to
secure regions such as Al-Anbar. This is the largest province
in Iraq with a major trading route along the Euphrates River
into Baghdad. It is also a terrorist route from Syria.
While the operations of militias have also been hampered
and their leaders eliminated, some groups continue to receive
support and training from Iran.
Recommendation: We have a moral obligation
to leave Iraq with a competent government and a stable environment
capable of producing a better life for all of its citizens.
We should have a timeline for a safe and responsible drawdown
of our forces based on the gains we have made on the ground,
the condition of Iraqi Security Forces, the pace of national
reconciliation efforts, and the health and well-being of
US military forces.
Observation: Many Iraqis consider the United
States an invader and occupier. A negotiated Status of Forces
Agreement (SOFA) between the Untied States and Iraq could
help alleviate this perception.
The United States has established a SOFA with 115 other nations,
defining the US military role in these countries.
Recommendation: The Iraqi Government should
announce it is beginning negotiations with the United States
to define the US military role in Iraq. The eventual agreement
should require a plebiscite with a threshold of 60 percent
of the members of the Iraqi Council of Representatives or
the general public voting to approve the agreement.
Observation: The ethnic rivalry, historical
precedence and Saddam Hussein’s former Baathist regime
are the primary reasons Iraqis are having difficulty resolving
their differences. The Sunnis are afraid they will have no
role in the new Iraqi Government and still have not accepted
the fact that they are in the minority with the Shia population
outnumbering them.
The Shia believe the Sunnis are asking for too much. The
Sunnis believe the Shia are providing too little. The fact
is: both are right, and, if each side gives a little, an historic
compromise could be reached.
Their disagreement allows the Kurds to play an important
role to tip the balance of power in either direction. The
Kurds are concerned about their autonomy but appear to be
willing to participate in a central government.
Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s government has been
trying to develop consensus among all three groups. Its efforts
obviously are not working because key decisions are not being
made by political leaders. The Sunni boycott of ministerial
posts has resulted in the Shia and Kurds forming an alliance
and moving forward without them.
The Sunnis say the Shia and Kurds are making all of the decisions,
however, the Sunnis have periodically decided to remove themselves
from the process. This is one of the major problems: the Sunnis
feel excluded, yet they continue to remove themselves from
the process.
Recommendation: The Sunnis must be made
to realize they cannot make the same mistake they did in
the January 2005 election by boycotting the process. They
need to know this will lead to their exclusion, cutting
them out of the decision making process entirely.
Prime Minister Al-Maliki must improve efforts to reach
consensus, however the Sunnis should not be rewarded for
nonparticipation. Further, if the Sunnis continue to remove
themselves, a Shia-Kurd alliance may be the only thing that
moves the country forward.
Observation: Iraqis argue many of their
problems are caused by their politicians. They believe differences
could be resolved at the local level after holding local elections.
However, provincial elections are not a panacea. In some provinces,
populations have relocated, and the citizens in a particular
area may no longer be representative of that location. Additionally,
foreign influences may play a major role in such local elections.
Recommendation: We should support local
elections, while recognizing potential pitfalls. They could
end up with a situation similar to Gaza with a Hamas type
government. Local elections should be held only after an
area is stabilized and Iraqis who moved out of the area
have been able to return to their homes.
Observation: Positive developments in Iraq
are under reported, or receive no media attention.
For example, memoranda of understanding have been signed
between the Governments of Iraq and Turkey to cooperate on
the “development of energy” and “preventing
and suppressing terrorism.” The Saudi Arabian Foreign
Minister announced that Riyadh will visit Iraq as a first
step in reestablishing its embassy in Baghdad.
The International Monetary Fund completed a review of the
Iraq economy and welcomed steps by the government to strengthen
the economy by increasing the price of gasoline from 3 cents
a liter to 32 cents a liter. Economic revitalization is now
a priority in Iraq. The US Department of Defense Office for
Business Transformation is helping reopen Iraqi industries
that were shut down after the 2003 invasion.
Iraqi Security Forces are becoming better equipped. The Iraqi
5th Division received a fleet of 40 light armored vehicles.
Their air force received 16 Huey II helicopters. Additionally,
their security forces are becoming better trained to meet
the challenges they will face securing their country.
Recommendation: The Governments of Iraq
and the United States should be making a greater effort
to highlight the positive things happening in Iraq. The
press has a responsibility to report these developments
and not only focus on every bomb that explodes.
We have embedded reporters with military units so the media
can explain troop activities. We should also embed reporters
with Provisional Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) so they can
describe how US reconstruction efforts are impacting Iraq.
Observation: Iraq’s neighboring country
leaders say it would be irresponsible for the United States
to leave Iraq until it is more secure. They believe it will
be catastrophic not only for Iraq but also for the entire
region. The leaders say a US withdrawal will embolden Iran
and cause a civil war in Iraq which could spill over into
the entire region.
Recommendation: We must encourage neighboring
countries to say publicly what they say privately. They
need to speak out and voice their concern that, if the United
States withdraws precipitously, Iran could dominate the
area and a civil war in Iraq could ignite the entire region.
Observation: Iran has strategic goals for
the Middle East to eliminate Israel and dominate the oil-rich
region. If Israel did not exist, Iran’s leaders would
have to invent another country to hate. Iran’s domination
of the Middle East means it could manipulate nearly two-thirds
of the world’s oil reserves.
Iran is also training and supplying weapons to Shia militia
extremists. The extremists are killing American soldiers and
other Coalition forces.
Recommendation: The United States must
increase its dialogue with Iran to help stabilize Iraq.
If Iran refuses to cooperate and continues it aggressive
actions against Iraq the United States must press the international
community to implement economic sanctions against Iran.
Iran’s ambitions in the region must be curtailed now
through peaceful measures so that the world does not have
to confront that nation in the future with military action.
Observation: Syria continues to allow terrorists
to transit its country to enter Iraq. It has little incentive
to stop this activity.
Recommendation: We need more international
pressure placed on Syria. The United States should encourage
the United Nations to have the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
begin its work to bring to justice the assassins, believed
to be from Syria, who killed former Lebanese Prime Minister
Rafik Harriri.
Observation: The Republic of Turkey has
every right to prevent incursions into its country. The Kurdistan
Workers Party, known as the PKK, is a terrorist organization
with bases in Northern Iraq. The group is involved in drug
trade and human trafficking, and conducts terrorist attacks
against Turkey. Turkish officials state US supplied weapons
are being used by the PKK. If the PKK were neutralized, Turkish
officials say they could play a greater role in helping stabilize
Iraq.
Recommendation: The PKK bases in Northern
Iraq should be shut down immediately. The Kurdish Regional
Government should be required to outlaw the PKK and not
allow it sanctuary in their provinces.
Observation: The Kurds, mostly residing
in Northeastern Iraq, are an important US ally. Iraq’s
Kurdistan region will become increasingly more important as
Coalition forces are drawn down.
Recommendation: In consultation
with the Iraqi Government, the United States should establish
a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the Kurdish Regional
Government.
Once a SOFA is established, cooperative security locations
could be developed allowing US forces to store equipment
and use the region as a base of operations.
On January 30, 2005, a majority of Iraqi voters elected a
275-member National Assembly which established a permanent
government. Iraq was on the right track. The Al-Askari Mosque
bombing in Samarra of February 2006 ignited a tremendous amount
of sectarian violence. Many believed Iraq was headed toward
a civil war. However, the US surge has helped to reduce sectarian
killings and the possibility of a civil war.
Now is not the time to give up on Iraq and its people. In
spite of tremendous obstacles, Iraq has made progress. It
has a Constitution, an elected Council of Representatives,
a President, Prime Minister and Cabinet. Iraqi Security Forces
are being trained and equipped at an accelerated rate. The
Iraqis, although struggling, are rebuilding their government
institutions and developing democracy under very difficult
circumstances.
A US force strategy of “all-in” backed by some
conservative Republicans or “all-out” strategy
backed by some liberal Democrats is irresponsible.
We went into Iraq on a bipartisan basis. We should develop
a bipartisan solution which enables Iraqis to stand on their
own allowing the bulk of US troops to come home. Compromise
is essential and possible.
How can we be so critical of the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds,
who have failed to work out their differences, when here at
home the Republicans and Democrats, White House and Congress,
have a difficult time finding common ground?
We must not allow partisan bickering in the United States
to endanger our national security, and should not forget we
attacked Iraq and abolished its entire security capability.
Given what we did to this country I believe it is our moral
obligation to continue to help the Iraqis build a better future
for themselves.
As always, I welcome the opportunity to discuss these matters
with you more fully. If you have any questions or would like
additional information on these observations and recommendations,
please contact me at (202) 225-5541 or Dr. R. Nicholas Palarino,
Senior Investigator and Policy Advisor at (202) 225-5074.
Sincerely,
Christopher Shays
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
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[1] While in
Lebanon we met with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, leader of
the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese
business leaders doing work in Iraq. In Turkey we had meetings
with Special Representative to Iraq, Ambassador Ahmet Oguz
Celikkol, Minister of Foreign Affairs Undersecretary, Ambassador
Ertugrul Apakan, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Deputy Undersecretary,
Undersecretary Ambassador Rafet Akhunay. In Jordan, to supplement
our meetings in Iraq, we met with Sunni leaders, including
Deputy President Tariz Al- Hashimi, Parliamentarians Muhammad
Al-Daini and Ali Al-Sajri, Iraqi Ambassador to Jordan, Sa’ad
Al-Hayani, and tribal sheik Sa’ad Nhaif Hardan Al-Dulami.
[2] Congressional
Delegation Baird met with the following US officials: Ambassador
Ryan Crocker; Multi-National Force-Iraq Commander, General
David Petraeus; Multi-National Corps-Iraq Commander, Lieutenant
General Raymond Odierno; Multi-National Division-Central South,
Deputy Commanding General, Brigadier General Edward Cardon;
Civilian Police Assistance Training Team Commanding General,
Brigadier General Michael Jones; and Deputy Assistant Secretary
of Defense for Business Transformation, Paul Brinkley. The
Delegation also met with Iraqi officials: Chairman, Council
of Representatives Committee on Human Rights, Sheikh Muhammad
Al-Haideri; Minister of Electricity, Karim Wahid; Minister
of Interior, Jawad Al-Bulani;, and Minister of Defense, Abdul
Qadir; and Sayyid Ammar Al-Hakim.
Contact: John Cardarelli, 202/225-5541
Contact:
Sarah Moore, 202/225-5541
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